HRL

The November Harlow Renaissance Board meeting featured a discussion on the current economic climate and the constraints that we currently face but identified a range of actions to maintain the town’s regeneration momentum. Current key economic indicators: 

• The last quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009 saw sharply rising unemployment in Harlow with the rate climbing to 5.3%, approximately twice that across the rest of west Essex. However, the rate has declined over the last two quarters suggesting that perhaps the worst of the recession is over.
  21% of Harlow’s male employment is still within the manufacturing sector, accounting for the higher than average unemployment figures here.
• On the surface, the retail sector has held up in Harlow relatively well. Nationally, vacancy rates of town centre retail units are currently averaging 15%, whereas in Harlow it is fluctuating around 7 – 8% with a number of new openings in the Harvey Centre and Broadwalk. These are largely at the ‘value’ end of the market and Harlow has been able to maintain its footfall count in part because of the dominance of this offer. However, this masks the fact that many retailers are reporting reduced turnover and it is possible that the post Christmas period will see some difficult times in the retail sector.
• A 30% cuts in flights announced by Ryanair for this winter from Stansted is likely to lead to further job losses in the area. These cuts mean 670 fewer flights each week and there are fears that this could result in 2,500 job losses.
• Nortel is now in administration and attempts are being made to sell the business in three sections. It is unlikely that any of the 300 jobs currently in Harlow will remain here once this process is completed by next spring.
• Private housebuilding activity has virtually ground to a halt with very little activity at either Harlow Gateway or Newhall. There is some resilience in the intermediate market however and Registered Social Landlords report continued demand in this sector. In fact, some developers are now turning to the social housing market as a way of continuing to develop. Although there is clearly a need for more affordable housing this potentially represents a threat for Harlow where a core element of the regeneration and growth strategy is to increase diversity of housing stock. There will need to be resistance to the trend to increase overall proportions of affordable housing as this short term fix will hinder the town’s longer term strategic needs.

Wider constraints 

We are also facing cuts to the Growth Fund budget, which will see a reduction in available resources to Harlow of £3m for next financial year. This will clearly reduce our ability to deliver enabling work to prepare for longer term growth. 

Of perhaps even greater significance is likely to be the reductions in public expenditure that will be seen for the next few years. The Department of Communities and Local Government (CLG) have said that they will seek to compensate growth areas for the loss of funding in 2010/11 through the funding allocations for future years. However, it remains to be seen whether the funding will be available to enable this to happen. It is also likely that the funding available to organisations such as the HCA and EEDA will be further reduced. 

We are also facing a period of political uncertainty with a general election in spring or early summer of next year. In the context of manifesto commitments to the reviewing of Regional Spatial Strategies there will be further uncertainty. It is therefore unlikely in the meantime that we will be able to engage directly with neighbouring local authorities on delivering housing growth in advance of the general election. 

Therefore, we face a period over the next year where the local economy is likely to remain under pressure and in which there will be uncertainty at a national level on policy directions and the availability of funding.  

Actions 

Within this however, there remains much that Harlow Renaissance can do, focussed on two core areas – business/jobs and housing development. A third area of focus is perhaps around securing longer term clarity of purpose and funding. 

Business & Jobs: 

• Make real progress on the inward investment campaign, implementing the Harlow proposition and delivering a joined up response service
• The branding campaign to be taken up by a wider range of organisations to underpin the inward investment message
• Maintaining activity in the town centre to retain footfall and increase average expenditure  

Housing:

•  Maximise the opportunities within the Town Centre North development for new housing
• Secure agreement for the regeneration of Harlow’s Priority Estates to bring forward deliverable schemes in 2010
• Bring forward proposals for supplementary planning guidance for the area around the station to enable new housing development (this will also have an effect on business and jobs since it will create opportunities for new commercial developments)
• Work with Harlow Council to bring forward other sites within the town as development propositions e.g. former swimming pool, land at Staple Tye
• Ensure delivery of the GAF II housing schemes during 2010/11.  

Future articles will contain details on the progress being made towards these objectives and also on the wider funding situation as it affects our programme.